Friday, July 6, 2012

Considering Shea Weber

People are screaming to make a play for Weber. And I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea. J.J. from Kansas had suggested the Wings offer Weber a 1 year, 8 million-ish deal. When the Predators match it, they are then forced to scramble to sign him to an extension otherwise he becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2013 season. Recently, that ideas has blossomed into bigger plans - why not offer Weber a contract the Predators won't match and actually sign the bastard?

The pitch from Nightmare on Helm Street: Offer Weber a 1 year, 11-12 million dollar offer. When Nashville doesn't match, you sign him to the offer and lose 4 first round draft picks to Nashville. As soon as he signs, you rapidly work to sign him to a long term, smaller cap hit contract. 23 skadoo! The Red Wings have Shea Weber. It's not a bad plan. It has a certain evil scientist quality to it that I have to tip my hat to Chris to for thinking of. 


I am going to put my education to work here and tell you guys all about an economic concept called "opportunity costs". Simply put, opportunity costs are all the alternatives you give up by making a specific choice. Let's look at what Shea Weber would do the Red Wings line up and what the opportunity costs might be.

The Current Red Wings Salary Cap is: $16,832,955 according to Capgeek
This does not include the potential salaries of Kyle Quincey (RFA-Arbitration), Justin Abdelkader (RFA) or Tomas Holmstrom (UFA) because as of now, none of them are technically signed.

Adding the Shea Weber 12 million contract, our salary cap drops to: $4,832,955


It's possible that we can get Quincey and Abdelkader back on the payroll, but probably not. I would argue that Quincey is the bigger of the two concern. While I have been really hard on Kyle Quincey in the past, I know a lot of people have a better opinion of him. Furthermore, we need to maintain 7 defensive deep roster in order to rotate out guys who are injured, need a rest or aren't playing that well. Let's say Quincey gets resigned for $4mil, our defensive roster most likely look like this:
Kronwall - Weber
Ericsson - White
Kindl - Quincey
#7: Smith

New Salary Cap: $832,955

Sounds like a done deal, right? Well, keep in mind this means we can't resign Abdelkader. The bonus he has to receive due to the CBA would put his minimum salary at $866,250. We would have to cut someone loose. Moreover, Red Wings said they didn't want to pay more than 2 million so let's assume they come to an agreement at $1.3 million. That puts us $467,045 in the hole. Meaning Cory Emmerton or Jan Mursak would have to go. Or you can forego Abdelkader and use Emmerton or someone else in his place.

Sound like a done deal? Hit the break for more. 


The Red Wings want another forward. They've made it known they're interested in Alexander Semin, Bobby Ryan, Rick Nash and Shane Doan. A lot of people want Semin, a lot of people want Ryan, but I would say perhaps the strongest opinions I've seen so far for Shane Doan. And for the purpose of this discussion, I'm going to use Shane Doan as an example because his cap hit would arguably be the lowest. 
I argued in my last post he'd pull in about a $5.5 million cap hit, and that's the number we're going to use for this discussion.

We're going to go with signing Abdelkader for $1.3 million and we're going to sign Doan to a $5.5 million contract. This puts us in a cap hole of -$5,417,045. Where are you going to find that cash? Let's look at the contracts of the "Expendables". 

So basically, you have to find $5,417,045 of cap space using those names. Todd Bertuzzi has a limited no trade clause, of which I'm uncertain of the details. So unless he agrees to the trade, he can't be moved. 

One comment on NOHM suggested moving a number of players for draft picks in order to make up for the 4 1st round picks that we'd be giving up for Weber. Not a bad plan. Make up some draft picks and free up some cap space. 

So here is my first question to you, the reader: Can you figure out a combination of the players shown there to make up for the 5+ million dollars in cap space that we have to find? Sending them down to the AHL could be an option, as will trading. But keep in mind, you have to find trades teams are willing to make, even for draft picks. And Grand Rapids is already filling to the brim to the point that we may lose guys like Janik and Brunnstrom. Also, you can always bring up other players, just be wary of the cap hit!

We also now come full circle to the principle of opportunity costs. Yes, Shea Weber is a world class defensive player, having been a runner up for the Norris Trophy several times, a slap shot second only to Zdeno Chara, great size, strength and hockey talent. However, think about opportunity cost and ask your self this.

Is Shea Weber worth 4 first round draft picks and giving up on Shane Doan/Bobby Ryan/Alexander Semin?

Is She Weber + Shane Doan/Bobby Ryan/Alexander Semin worth 4 first round draft picks and the names you've put on the chopping block to make cap space? Keeping in mind, Bobby Ryan and Alexander Semin may cost you an even greater cap hit. 

Well, what do you think? 

Epilogue: Just wanted to point out that by going after Weber, we may not have the draft picks and the available talent to trade for Bobby Ryan. Nash would most likely be an impossibility.

Epilogue #2: 

So  yeah. Do that. 

14 comments:

  1. Yeah the motivation for going after Weber is partly to screw with The preds. Otherwise it doesn't make sense. Id like Nash first and Doan second

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    1. Well, defense is a bigger priority for this team, if for no other reason than the depth. And if the best argument is "let's screw the Preds" and not "let's improve the team" then it's a bad idea.

      Either way, I like Doan. I like Nash. Doan seems more likely.

      Thanks for your comment!

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  2. Forget weber, the new cba will end this double digit year hundred million dollar crap. These teams are screwed as these guys age. Even the wings will have issues. We have some talent in the system lets let them play a little sooner than in the past.

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    1. As much as I am staring at oracle bones with those post, the CBA is that much less unsure. But you could very well be right. Only time will tell.

      Thanks for your comment!

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  3. Sure Nash would be nice but we'd have to give up far too much for CBJ to trade him to the Wings. I just don't see it. I prefer to trade for Yandle and sign either Semin or Doan (if avail). Don't forget Doan is getting up there in age though.

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    1. Check out my last post for pros and cons on Semin and Doan. I agree he's up there in age, but I think he's aged well. It is a concern though.

      Either way, the cap hit from Doan is really what's important to this post.

      In any event, thank you for the comment

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  4. Umm, this was posted on July 6, but wasn't the deadline for RFA offer sheets the end of July 5??? Too late, I believe.

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    1. Not that I'm aware of, and I can't find anything to confirm that. If you can please share it. Thanks for the comment

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    2. Deadline for arbitration was 5pm July 5th. RFA signing deadline is December 1st(According to NHL 12 atleast)

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  5. Hank and pav are not getting any younger they're in the prime of their careers and don't deserve to go through a rebuilding phase now! I say go after Keith yandle and semin

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    1. Keep in mind Yandle requires a trade. You have to ask yourself what Phoenix will ask for him. But it'd definitely be a great acquisition if Kenny can make it happen.

      Thanks for the comment

      Delete
  6. Why would you place the new players just brought in as UFA to then trade them or send them down? I feel that Cleary is on the down side of his career and he is racking up the injuries in the past couple of seasons. If he was moved out of the picture via trade or sent down, then the money could be in play to use.

    You also need to look at the big picture. What about future contracts such as Fil? I peasonally have been saying for the past 2 off seasons that Franzen needs to go. He was great for a short time and is coasting on a reputation that has faded.

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    1. Very true. We do have a lot of upcoming signings that we have to have money for. Hadn't thought about moving Franzen to make this deal happen. I guess I thought he had a NTC but he doesn't.

      Thanks for the comment.

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  7. i think if Holland an Co. can get a deal done for Yandle, they need to pull the trigger. he won't come cheap, but it'll be much more manageable than whatever CBJ is asking for Nash, or the kind of cap hit that would come with Weber. my only issue with trading Franzen is depth. this team has an abundance of 3rd/4th line types, and is already hurting for true scoring depth. however inconsistent, Franzen still has the ability to get into the 30 goal/60 point range, and trading those points away, with the current depth on the top two lines, is kinda scary. i believe Nyquist has the skill to be in those top six. but, what're the chances he's going to be able to get those numbers in what will technically be his rookie season? signing Doan, to play on that top line with Datsyuk and Nyquist will be an upgrade over Bert from last year. similar numbers to Bert (plus a few goals/assists), but a much better puck handler. with Sammy on the second line, this gives us 5 reliable scorers on those lines. given the possibility of Tatar being part of a trade to get Yandle, there's not much help in GR either. granted, maybe Brunner will turn out to be more than hype, but i'm still not excited about the scoring depth situation. that being said, if they can get Yandle, they need to. Lidstrom type production in the offensive zone, and still solid in the D zone. with a manageable contract that's still good for 4 more years. this is the most likeable move in my opinion.

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