The pitch from Nightmare on Helm Street: Offer Weber a 1 year, 11-12 million dollar offer. When Nashville doesn't match, you sign him to the offer and lose 4 first round draft picks to Nashville. As soon as he signs, you rapidly work to sign him to a long term, smaller cap hit contract. 23 skadoo! The Red Wings have Shea Weber. It's not a bad plan. It has a certain evil scientist quality to it that I have to tip my hat to Chris to for thinking of.
I am going to put my education to work here and tell you guys all about an economic concept called "opportunity costs". Simply put, opportunity costs are all the alternatives you give up by making a specific choice. Let's look at what Shea Weber would do the Red Wings line up and what the opportunity costs might be.
The Current Red Wings Salary Cap is: $16,832,955 according to Capgeek
This does not include the potential salaries of Kyle Quincey (RFA-Arbitration), Justin Abdelkader (RFA) or Tomas Holmstrom (UFA) because as of now, none of them are technically signed.
Adding the Shea Weber 12 million contract, our salary cap drops to: $4,832,955
It's possible that we can get Quincey and Abdelkader back on the payroll, but probably not. I would argue that Quincey is the bigger of the two concern. While I have been really hard on Kyle Quincey in the past, I know a lot of people have a better opinion of him. Furthermore, we need to maintain 7 defensive deep roster in order to rotate out guys who are injured, need a rest or aren't playing that well. Let's say Quincey gets resigned for $4mil, our defensive roster most likely look like this:
Kronwall - Weber
Ericsson - White
Kindl - Quincey
New Salary Cap: $832,955
Sounds like a done deal, right? Well, keep in mind this means we can't resign Abdelkader. The bonus he has to receive due to the CBA would put his minimum salary at $866,250. We would have to cut someone loose. Moreover, Red Wings said they didn't want to pay more than 2 million so let's assume they come to an agreement at $1.3 million. That puts us $467,045 in the hole. Meaning Cory Emmerton or Jan Mursak would have to go. Or you can forego Abdelkader and use Emmerton or someone else in his place.
Sound like a done deal? Hit the break for more.
The Red Wings want another forward. They've made it known they're interested in Alexander Semin, Bobby Ryan, Rick Nash and Shane Doan. A lot of people want Semin, a lot of people want Ryan, but I would say perhaps the strongest opinions I've seen so far for Shane Doan. And for the purpose of this discussion, I'm going to use Shane Doan as an example because his cap hit would arguably be the lowest.
I argued in my last post he'd pull in about a $5.5 million cap hit, and that's the number we're going to use for this discussion.
We're going to go with signing Abdelkader for $1.3 million and we're going to sign Doan to a $5.5 million contract. This puts us in a cap hole of -$5,417,045. Where are you going to find that cash? Let's look at the contracts of the "Expendables".
So basically, you have to find $5,417,045 of cap space using those names. Todd Bertuzzi has a limited no trade clause, of which I'm uncertain of the details. So unless he agrees to the trade, he can't be moved.
One comment on NOHM suggested moving a number of players for draft picks in order to make up for the 4 1st round picks that we'd be giving up for Weber. Not a bad plan. Make up some draft picks and free up some cap space.
So here is my first question to you, the reader: Can you figure out a combination of the players shown there to make up for the 5+ million dollars in cap space that we have to find? Sending them down to the AHL could be an option, as will trading. But keep in mind, you have to find trades teams are willing to make, even for draft picks. And Grand Rapids is already filling to the brim to the point that we may lose guys like Janik and Brunnstrom. Also, you can always bring up other players, just be wary of the cap hit!
We also now come full circle to the principle of opportunity costs. Yes, Shea Weber is a world class defensive player, having been a runner up for the Norris Trophy several times, a slap shot second only to Zdeno Chara, great size, strength and hockey talent. However, think about opportunity cost and ask your self this.
Is Shea Weber worth 4 first round draft picks and giving up on Shane Doan/Bobby Ryan/Alexander Semin?
Is She Weber + Shane Doan/Bobby Ryan/Alexander Semin worth 4 first round draft picks and the names you've put on the chopping block to make cap space? Keeping in mind, Bobby Ryan and Alexander Semin may cost you an even greater cap hit.
Well, what do you think?
Epilogue: Just wanted to point out that by going after Weber, we may not have the draft picks and the available talent to trade for Bobby Ryan. Nash would most likely be an impossibility.